Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2026)
Haft Hesar J Environ Stud 2026, 15(55): 47-62 |
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Shiri Z, Mirmoghtadaei M, Modiri A, Borgheipour H. Systematic and comprehensive assessment of drought in Tehran metropolis in three time periods: 1390, 1395, and 1400. Haft Hesar J Environ Stud 2026; 15 (55) :47-62
URL: http://hafthesar.iauh.ac.ir/article-1-2361-en.html
URL: http://hafthesar.iauh.ac.ir/article-1-2361-en.html
Abstract: (383 Views)
Aims: This research uses a multi-system approach to identify the vulnerability factors of Tehran to drought and examines the role of institutional management in reproducing urban resilience through analyzing social, economic, environmental, agricultural, water resources, and industrial dimensions.
Methods: This research has calculated Tehran's vulnerability indicators using expert opinions and statistical data from 1390, 1395, and 1400, according to documents from the Statistical Center of Iran.The research method includes Monte Carlo sampling (50 managers and experts) and multivariate regression analysis using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)and SPEI(Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation-Transpiration Index) to measure drought resilience with CDVI(Comprehensive Vulnerability Index).
Findings: Drought in Tehran is more affected by human and management factors (such as excessive water extraction and unsustainable development) than by climatic factors. Social (CDVI=0.72) and economic (CDVI=0.68) systems were the most vulnerable, while the environmental system was the only system with a significant correlation with climate variables. Management indicators such as coordination between institutions, resource allocation, and public participation were identified as key factors of resilience.
Conclusion: Tehran's resilience to drought is the product of unsustainable resource management and weak institutional governance rather than being affected by climate factors. The establishment of a cross-sectoral drought management institution, reforming the water pricing system and implementing local capacity building programs, strengthening institutions, integrated water resources management, and developing resilient infrastructure are suggested as key solutions. Long-term programs should also be designed with a focus on reducing human factors of vulnerability.
Methods: This research has calculated Tehran's vulnerability indicators using expert opinions and statistical data from 1390, 1395, and 1400, according to documents from the Statistical Center of Iran.The research method includes Monte Carlo sampling (50 managers and experts) and multivariate regression analysis using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)and SPEI(Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation-Transpiration Index) to measure drought resilience with CDVI(Comprehensive Vulnerability Index).
Findings: Drought in Tehran is more affected by human and management factors (such as excessive water extraction and unsustainable development) than by climatic factors. Social (CDVI=0.72) and economic (CDVI=0.68) systems were the most vulnerable, while the environmental system was the only system with a significant correlation with climate variables. Management indicators such as coordination between institutions, resource allocation, and public participation were identified as key factors of resilience.
Conclusion: Tehran's resilience to drought is the product of unsustainable resource management and weak institutional governance rather than being affected by climate factors. The establishment of a cross-sectoral drought management institution, reforming the water pricing system and implementing local capacity building programs, strengthening institutions, integrated water resources management, and developing resilient infrastructure are suggested as key solutions. Long-term programs should also be designed with a focus on reducing human factors of vulnerability.
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2025/06/12 | Revised: 2026/06/28 | Accepted: 2025/08/15 | Published: 2026/06/4 | ePublished: 2026/06/4
Received: 2025/06/12 | Revised: 2026/06/28 | Accepted: 2025/08/15 | Published: 2026/06/4 | ePublished: 2026/06/4
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